DTN Midday Livestock Comments          10/07 11:56

   Cattle Trade Mixed While Hogs Push Higher at Monday's Start

   With both boxed beef prices and pork cutout values higher at Monday's start, 
most of the livestock contracts are trading higher.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mostly higher although some of the nearby 
cattle contracts are trading slightly lower. If traders are going to continue 
to support the livestock complex as confidently as they did last week, they're 
going to need to see strong fundamental support in order to sustain these 
levels. December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is 
down $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 246.01 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher, although some of the 
nearby contracts are trading slightly lower as traders hope to find stable 
fundamental support in this week's market. October live cattle are up $0.32 at 
$187.32, December live cattle are down $0.17 at $186.82 and February live 
cattle are up $0.02 at $187.97. After traders ran the complex to its highest 
price point seen since late July, they now need fundamental reassurance that 
the move was merited. Thankfully boxed beef prices are strong at the start of 
the week, which should lend some support, but throughout the week traders will 
continue to monitor beef demand and any developments in the cash market. No 
bids or asking prices are noted at the time and trade won't likely develop 
until after Wednesday at some time.

   Last week Southern live cattle traded for $186 which is $1.00 higher than 
the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at 
$296 which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last 
week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 59,356 head. Of that, 82% (48,748 
head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 18% (10,608 
head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.79 ($305.37) and select up $2.72 
($290.33) with a movement of 58 loads (32.64 loads of choice, 9.56 loads of 
select, 4.12 loads of trim and 11.46 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex is also trading mixed as traders note the slight 
regression in some of the nearby live cattle contracts, but all in all, most of 
the contracts are trading higher especially the spring and summer 2025 
contracts as supplies of feeder cattle will likely be thin during that time. 
October feeders are down $0.42 at $249.20, November feeders are down $0.10 at 
$249.17 and January feeders are up $0.57 at $245.02. Last week the CME feeder 
cattle index rounded out the week at $246.78 -- indicating that buyer demand 
remains strong and hopefully will again this week.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is trading confidently into Monday's noon hour as the 
market is noting the stronger demand in pork cutout values early in the week. 
October lean hogs are down $0.07 at $83.90, December lean hogs are up $0.92 at 
$77.07 and February lean hogs are up $0.90 at $80.72. But in order for traders 
to move the complex any higher given that the market is trading at current 
resistance levels, they'll need to see stable consumer demand and interest.

   The projected lean hog index for 10/4/2024 is down $0.57 at $84.26, and the 
actual index for 10/3/2024 is down $0.07 at $84.83. Hog prices are unavailable 
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality issues. However, 
we can see that only 136 head have traded and that the market's five-day 
rolling average now sits at $77.32. Pork cutouts total 205.84 loads with 166.51 
loads of pork cuts and 39.33 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.17, 
$96.48.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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